Italy, France, netherlands, romania. I wouldn't say its choking if the dutch don't come out of that group. All 4 of those teams are very very good. The dutch always seem to be in the group of death.
Its just too difficult to pick at this time. I (as others) have no idea what teams will be on form going into the summer months. As of right now, Germany isn't on form but that could mean S%^& when the tourney rolls around in 6 months. If it was today I would say that Italy wins another major tournament.
Wouldn't that be horses then. My dark horse is Italy. And then Austria. Then Russia. Then Greece. In fact, if I throw enough countries out there I'll be able to tell you I knew who the dark horse was that won it